The End of History Illusion

William Liao
Aug 1, 2024

We are awful at estimating how much we will grow in the future.

In a study of 19,000 people ranging from ages 18 to 68, researchers found that people tend to believe they’ve grown significantly up to the present moment, but will not grow much in the future. They call this the End of History Illusion.

The person you are today is not the “watershed moment”, according to the study, that so many of us often think we’ve arrived at where we’ve “finally become the person we will be for the rest of [our] lives.”

What you may be bad at today, you may become great at in the future.

What you may fear today, you may learn to face confidently in the future.

There is so much potential for change even if you cannot see or feel it.

Take heart in that.

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William Liao

Taiwanese American, daily blogger of ideas about impactful work in service of others, photographer (ephemera.photography)