What’s the conclusion you don’t want to hear?

A huge part of our sense-making apparatus is storytelling.

We generally prefer to be able to tell ourselves a coherent narrative of how our observations come together.

Coherence does not always equal truth, though.

Case and point: I recently experienced a brief moment of bias during a data analysis project when I told myself a story about the data before I even looked at it.

Two of the variables I was set to look at seemed so intuitively, so obviously related, that I took their connection for granted.

When the initial analysis revealed otherwise, I went through my work with a fine-tooth comb several times because I’d sooner believe that I’d made a clerical error than that the data in question were not related in the way I had imagined.

Though I was able to change my mind in light of the facts, it took longer than it should have because I was latching on strongly to my initial assumptions.

I think a good way to maintain a clear mind to avoid situations like these is to actively consider the possibility that the conclusion we don’t want to hear is true.

This has a way of massaging some of the tension out of our assumptions and allows us be open to the possibility that our story may need to change and render us able to bring it in closer alignment with reality when the facts strongly suggest we need to.